Free interactive

Path to Aso Rock

Start with the declared 2023 presidential result. Pick a party, move its share in any state, adjust national turnout, and watch both winning conditions: the highest national vote, and at least 25% in two-thirds of the states plus the FCT (25 of 37).

Party you are moving:

Projected national vote

  • APCBola Ahmed Tinubu8,805,655 · 37.73%
  • PDPAtiku Abubakar6,984,926 · 29.93%
  • LPPeter Obi6,071,837 · 26.01%
  • NNPPRabiu Musa Kwankwaso1,478,660 · 6.34%

Winning conditions

Leading nationally

APC

25% spread rule (needs 25 of 37)

APC30/37
PDP22/37
LP17/37
NNPP1/37

APC leads nationally and clears 25% in 30 states — outright win.

Move APC state by state

Each slider adds or removes percentage points for APC, redistributed proportionally among the other parties in that state.

Abia

2.5%

swing 0 pts · 8,914 votes

Adamawa

25.7%

swing 0 pts · 182,881 votes

Akwa Ibom

31.5%

swing 0 pts · 160,620 votes

Anambra

0.8%

swing 0 pts · 5,111 votes

Bauchi

37.7%

swing 0 pts · 316,694 votes

Bayelsa

26.1%

swing 0 pts · 42,572 votes

Benue

41.3%

swing 0 pts · 310,468 votes

Borno

55.4%

swing 0 pts · 252,282 votes

Cross River

32.0%

swing 0 pts · 130,520 votes

Delta

15.1%

swing 0 pts · 90,183 votes

Ebonyi

13.4%

swing 0 pts · 42,402 votes

Edo

25.4%

swing 0 pts · 144,471 votes

Ekiti

66.4%

swing 0 pts · 201,494 votes

Enugu

1.1%

swing 0 pts · 4,772 votes

FCT

20.1%

swing 0 pts · 90,902 votes

Gombe

28.5%

swing 0 pts · 146,977 votes

Imo

14.5%

swing 0 pts · 66,406 votes

Jigawa

46.4%

swing 0 pts · 421,390 votes

Kaduna

29.8%

swing 0 pts · 399,293 votes

Kano

31.3%

swing 0 pts · 517,341 votes

Katsina

46.1%

swing 0 pts · 482,283 votes

Kebbi

45.1%

swing 0 pts · 248,088 votes

Kogi

53.9%

swing 0 pts · 240,751 votes

Kwara

60.7%

swing 0 pts · 263,572 votes

Lagos

46.2%

swing 0 pts · 572,606 votes

Nasarawa

33.6%

swing 0 pts · 172,922 votes

Niger

50.1%

swing 0 pts · 375,183 votes

Ogun

61.6%

swing 0 pts · 341,554 votes

Ondo

69.5%

swing 0 pts · 369,924 votes

Osun

47.5%

swing 0 pts · 343,945 votes

Oyo

62.0%

swing 0 pts · 449,884 votes

Plateau

30.0%

swing 0 pts · 307,195 votes

Rivers

46.4%

swing 0 pts · 231,591 votes

Sokoto

48.8%

swing 0 pts · 285,444 votes

Taraba

28.4%

swing 0 pts · 135,165 votes

Yobe

41.6%

swing 0 pts · 151,459 votes

Zamfara

58.8%

swing 0 pts · 298,396 votes